2020 Could Be a Record Year for Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels

There could be a 2.5bn tonne fall in global carbon emissions from the fossil fuel industry this year, according to data commissioned by The Guardian.

The 5% drop in demand - the largest fall on record - has been triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the latest figures, the lockdowns and restrictions across the globe will cut trillions of cubic metres of gas, billions of barrels of oil, and millions of tonnes of coal from global energy in 2020. This will result in the fossil fuel industry experiencing the largest fall in CO2 emissions ever recorded.

Experts had initially predicted that the carbon emissions for 2020 from cement production and fossil fuels would rise. Now, they are expecting emissions to fall by around 5% - the lowest levels for around ten years.

The head of the International Energy Agency, Dr Fatih Birol, has warned that the drop in emissions should not be viewed as a triumph against the climate emergency.

“This decline is happening because of the economic meltdown in which thousands of people are losing their livelihoods, not as a result of the right government decisions in terms of climate policies,” Birol said.

“The reason we want to see emissions decline is because we want a more livable planet and happier, healthier people”.

The Norwegian energy consultancy, Rystad Energy, found that the sudden fall in flights and vehicles on the road could cause the global demand for oil to tumble by over five times more than the drop experienced after the 2008 financial crisis.

According to Rystad, the fall in demand for crude oil will result in a cut of 1.8bn tonnes of CO2 emissions that would otherwise have added to the climate crisis. They also expect the fall in demand for gas and coal to cut another 700m tonnes of emissions.

A senior partner at Rystad, Erik Holm Reiso, said: “The coronavirus pandemic is an unprecedented event for energy markets, which will have a substantial impact on the world’s total carbon emissions.

“The last time demand for oil contracted, during the financial crisis in 2008 to 2009, demand fell by 1.3m barrels of oil a day. But Covid-19 could cause oil demand to fall by more than five times as much”.

However, Birol argues that governments must include measures for clean energy in their economic stimulus packages once the pandemic is under control, otherwise “this decline could be easily wiped out in the rebound of the economy”.

“These figures are important and impressive. But they don’t make me happy. For me it’s more important about what happens next year, and the year after that,” Birol said.