UK Could Meet Two-Thirds of Electricity Demand with Renewables by 2030

The UK could meet up to 65% of its electricity demand with renewable resources by the end of the decade, up from the 50% previously forecast, owing to the tumbling cost of low-carbon power, the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) has stated.

According to the commission’s “Renewables, Recovery and Reaching Net-Zero” report, published yesterday, there will be “no material cost impact, either over the short or long term” of accelerating the adoption of renewable energy in order to meet the UK’s net-zero goal by 2050. The commission had previously called for the UK to attain 50% renewable power by 2030, to meet the original target of reducing emissions by 80% of 1990 levels by midcentury.

The NIC, which gives the government impartial, expert advice on major infrastructure challenges, has said the 65% target is achievable if the government can stimulate sufficient private sector investment, such as by giving green tax breaks. 

The government should also facilitate a pipeline of clean energy projects by announcing the timelines and budgets of Contracts for Difference (CfD) auctions, through which renewable developers lock in prices, further in advance and by holding auctions annually instead of every two years, the report recommends.

The commission’s forecasts account for a projected sharp increase in electricity demand, as boilers are replaced with electric heating technologies, petrol and diesel cars swapped for electric vehicles, the population increases and we rely more on digital technologies. Electricity generation in the UK will need to rise to a minimum of 465 TWh by 2050, from 345TWh last year. 

To increase generation and meet the 65% target, the UK must deploy between 86GW and 99GW of renewable capacity by the end of 2030, including a minimum of 40GW of offshore wind.

Sir John Armitt, chair of the National Infrastructure Commission, said: “The government should be credited for recent steps to encourage quicker deployment of renewables and for setting up successful mechanisms for encouraging private sector investments.

“These latest projections suggest we can afford to go further, faster without hitting consumers in the pocket.”

The industry welcomed the commission’s call for more ambitious targets for renewable generation and suggested the goals could be raised still further.

Rebecca Williams, head of policy and regulation at trade body RenewableUK, said: "The NIC is right to raise its ambition on renewables but we can go even further and even faster. Wind alone can generate more than 50% of the UK's electricity by 2030, so their new 65% target for renewables overall could go even higher.”

She also called for the government to lift the cap on the amount of renewable energy capacity that can be procured at each Contract for Difference auction. “This would allow us to maximise the benefits of cheap renewable power for consumers, cutting bills,” she said.

The report also notes that the deployment of renewables alone won’t create a resilient, low-carbon energy system and said that further work is needed on new battery storage technologies, efficient interconnectors and other innovations to maximise the usability of intermittent renewables.